Produzione industriale della Cina più bassa dal 2012

La produzione industriale in Cina e’ scesa in gennaio al livello piu’ basso dal 2012 a questa parte. Lo dice una stima ufficiale diffusa da responsabili degli acquisti delle aziende, che fissa la caduta dell’indice a 49,4 dal 49,7 di dicembre, in una scala di 100 punti nella quale le cifre sotto 50 significano una contrazione. E’ l’ennesimo segnale di debolezza per la seconda economia mondiale, che pochi giorni fa aveva fatto gia’ segnare la sua crescita annuale piu’ lenta degli ultimi 25 anni.

Crescita cinese nel 2015 più bassa da 25 anni. Qui testo completo del comunicato dell’ufficio di statistica con tutti i dati

La crescita economica della Cina scende al 6,8% nell’ultimo trimestre del 2015 con l’indebolimento del commercio e dei consumi, trascinando la crescita annuale al livello più basso in 25 anni (+6,9%). Le principali borse asiatiche non hanno tuttavia risposto con nervosismo stamattina ai dati, registrando lievi guadagni in una giornata complessivamente poco mossa. La crescita cinese è diminuita costantemente nel corso degli ultimi cinque anni, con il Partito comunista che cerca di prendere le distanze da un modello logoro basato su investimenti e commercio, per indirizzarsi verso una crescita auto sostenuta trainata dai consumi e i servizi interni. Il rallentamento cinese e un crollo dei prezzi sul listino di Shanghai hanno fatto crescere le preoccupazioni per la perdita di sostegno da parte di un’economia vista una volta come motore della crescita globale, deprimendo i mercati finanziari internazionali. La crescita annuale della Cina è scesa al 6,9%, secondo i dati resi noti oggi dal governo: il livello più basso dal 3,8% del 1990, su cui pesarono le sanzioni inflitte a Pechino dopo la repressione a Piazza Tiananmen del movimento per la democrazia. Il dato ottobre-dicembre è stata la crescita trimestrale più bassa dalle conseguenze della crisi finanziaria globale, quando l’espansione dell’economia si accasciò al 6,1% nel primo trimestre 2009 (la crescita del trimestre luglio-settembre 2009 fu del 6,9%). La crescita degli investimenti in fabbriche, abitazioni e altri beni immobili, un volano economico chiave, si è indebolita al 12% nel 2015: giù di 2,9 punti percentuali rispetto all’anno precedente. Le vendite al dettaglio sono cresciute del 10,6%, rispetto al 12% registrato nel 2014. Le esportazioni di dicembre si sono ridotte dell’1,4% rispetto all’anno precedente, mentre le esportazioni sono diminuite del 7,6% su base. La spesa per il commercio online è cresciuta del 33,3% rispetto al 2014. La crescita è stata in linea con le previsioni del settore privato e l’obiettivo ufficiale del Partito Comunista di circa il 7% annuo. Pechino ha risposto al calo della crescita tagliando i tassi d’interesse sei volte da novembre 2014 e varando misure per aiutare gli esportatori e altre industrie. Gli economisti si aspettano per quest’anno un’ulteriore diminuzione della crescita cinese, con il Fondo monetario internazionale (Fmi) che mira a un’espansione del 6,3%.

Fonte: ANSA

National Bureau of Statistics of China

19 January, 2016

 

In 2015, faced with complicated international environment and increasing downward pressure on the economy, the Central Party Committee and the State Council have maintained the strategic focus, comprehensively arranged both domestic and international tasks, adhered to the general work guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, actively adapted to and led the new normal, guided new practices with new theories, strived for new development with new strategies, innovated macro-regulation, deepened the structural reform and pushed forward “mass entrepreneurship and innovation”. As a result, the economy has achieved moderate but stable and sound development.

 

According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 67,670.8 billion yuan in 2015, an increase of 6.9 percent at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of the first quarter was 7.0 percent, the second quarter 7.0 percent, the third quarter 6.9 percent, and the fourth quarter 6.8 percent. The value added of the primary industry was 6,086.3 billion yuan, up by 3.9 percent; the secondary industry 27,427.8 billion yuan, up by 6.0 percent; and the tertiary industry 34,156.7 billion yuan, up by 8.3 percent. The gross domestic product of the fourth quarter of 2015 went up by 1.6 percent on a quarter-on-quarter base.

 

1. Agricultural Production Enjoyed Another Harvest.

 

The total grain output in 2015 was 621.43 million tons, an increase of 14.41 million tons, up by 2.4 percent. The total output of summer grain was 141.12 million tons, an increase of 3.3 percent; the total output of early rice was 33.69 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 percent; the total output of autumn grain was 446.62 million tons, an increase of 2.3 percent. The total output of cereals was 572.25 million tons, an increase of 2.7 percent. The total output of cotton in 2015 was 5.61 million tons, a decrease of 9.3 percent. The total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 84.54 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 percent, among which the total output of pork was 54.87 million tons, a decrease of 3.3 percent. The total output of poultry eggs in 2015 was 29.99 million tons, an increase of 3.6 percent; the total output of milk was 37.55 million tons, an increase of 0.8 percent.

 

2. The Upgrading of the Industry was Notable.

 

The total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size in 2015 was up by 6.1 percent at comparable prices. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added growth of the state holding enterprises was 1.4 percent; that of the collective enterprises, 1.2 percent; share-holding enterprises, 7.3 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, 3.7 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining grew by 2.7 percent compared with last year, the manufacturing by 7.0 percent and the electricity, thermal power, gas and the production and supply of water by 1.4 percent. New industries were growing rapidly. In 2015, the value added of the new technology industry grew by 10.2 percent, 4.1 percentage points faster than industrial enterprises above the designated size, accounting for 11.8 percent of industrial enterprises above the designated size, 1.2 percentage points more than last year. Among the new technology industry, the manufacture of aerospace vehicles and equipment grew by 26.2 percent, manufacture of electronic and communication equipment by 12.7 percent, the manufacture of optical and photographic equipment by 10.6 percent and the manufacture of medicines by 9.9 percent. In 2015, the sales-output ratio of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 97.6 percent. The export delivery value of these enterprises reached 11,858.2 billion yuan, down by 1.8 percent. In December, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size was up by 5.9 percent year-on-year or up by 0.41 percent month-on-month.

 

From January to November, the profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size stood at 5,538.7 billion yuan, down by 1.9 percent year-on-year. The costs for per-hundred-yuan turnover of principal activities of the industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 85.97 yuan and the profit rate of the principal activities was 5.57 percent.

 

3. The Growth of Investment in Fixed Assets Slowed Down. 

 

In 2015, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 55,159.0 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year growth of 10.0 percent over last year or a real growth of 12.0 percent after deducting price factors, 2.9 percentage points slower than last year in real term. Specifically, the investment by the state holding enterprises reached 17,893.3 billion yuan, a rise of 10.9 percent; private investment reached 35,400.7 billion yuan, up by 10.1 percent, accounting for 64.2 percent of the total investment. The investment in the primary industry was 1,556.1 billion yuan, up by 31.8 percent; the secondary industry 22,409.0 billion yuan, up by 8.0 percent; and the tertiary industry 31,193.9 billion yuan, an increase of 10.6 percent. The funds in place for investment in 2015 were 57,378.9 billion yuan, up by 7.7 percent. Specifically, the state budget went up by 15.6 percent, domestic loans down by 5.8 percent, self-raising funds up by 9.5 percent and utilization of foreign investment down by 29.6 percent. The total investment in newly-started projects in 2015 was 40,808.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5 percent. In December, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) grew by 0.68 percent month-on-month.

 

The total investment in real estate development in 2015 was 9,597.9 billion yuan, a nominal growth of 1.0 percent (a real growth of 2.8 percent after deducting price factors). In particular, the investment in residential buildings went up by 0.4 percent. The floor space newly started was 1,544.54 million square meters, down by 14.0 percent. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings went down by 14.6 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold was 1,284.95 million square meters, up by 6.5 percent. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings sold was up by 6.9 percent. The total sales of commercial buildings were 8,728.1 billion yuan, up by 14.4 percent. Specifically, the sales of residential buildings were up by 16.6 percent. The land space purchased for real estate development was 228.11 million square meters, down by 31.7 percent. By the end of December, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 718.53 million square meters, up by 15.6 percent compared with that at the end of last year. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises reached 12,520.3 billion yuan, up by 2.6 percent over last year.

 

4. Market Sales Grew Rapidly.

 

In 2015, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 30,093.1 billion yuan, a nominal annual rise of 10.7 percent (a real growth of 10.6 percent after deducting price factors). Specifically, the retail sales of consumer goods by enterprises above the designated size stood at 14,255.8 billion yuan, up by 7.8 percent over the last year. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 25,899.9 billion yuan, up by 10.5 percent, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 4,193.2 billion yuan, up by 11.8 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering industry was 3,231.0 billion yuan, up by 11.7 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 26,862.1 billion yuan, up by 10.6 percent. In particular, the retail sales of the enterprises above the designated size reached 13,389.1 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9 percent. In December, the nominal growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 11.1 percent over last year (a real growth of 10.7 percent after deducting price factors), or 0.82 percent month-on-month.

 

In 2015, the online retail sales reached 3,877.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33.3 percent compared with last year, among which the retail sales of physical goods was 3,242.4 billion yuan, an increase of 31.6 percent, accounting for 10.8 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods; the retail sales of non-physical goods was 634.9 billion yuan, an increase of 42.4 percent.

 

5. The Imports and Exports Decreased on a Year-on-Year Base.

 

The total value of imports and exports in 2015 was 24,584.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0 percent. The total value of exports was 14,135.7 billion yuan, down by 1.8 percent; the total value of imports was 10,449.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.2 percent. The trade balance was 3,686.5 billion yuan in surplus. In December, the total value of imports and exports was 2,475.7 billion yuan, down by 0.5 percent year-on-year. Of this total, the value of exports was 1,428.9 billion yuan, up by 2.3 percent; and that of imports was 1,046.8 billion yuan, down by 4.0 percent.

 

6. The Consumer Price Increased Moderately.

 

In 2015, the consumer price went up by 1.4 percent over last year. Specifically, the price went up by 1.5 percent in urban areas and 1.3 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food rose by 2.3 percent; tobacco, liquor and related articles up by 2.1 percent; clothing up by 2.7 percent; household facilities, articles and maintenance services up by 1.0 percent; health care and personal articles up by 2.0 percent; transportation and communication down by 1.7 percent; recreation, education, culture articles and services up by 1.4 percent and housing up by 0.7 percent. In terms of food prices, grain went up by 2.0 percent, oil or fat down by 3.2 percent, pork up by 9.5 percent and fresh vegetables up by 7.4 percent. In December, the consumer prices went up by 1.6 percent year-on-year, or 0.5 percent up month-on-month. In 2015, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 5.2 percent compared with last year, while the price in December dropped by 5.9 percent year-on-year and 0.6 percent month-on-month. The purchasing price for industrial producers was down by 6.1 percent compared with last year and in December, the price was down by 6.8 percent year-on-year and 0.7 percent month-on-month.

 

7. Residents’ Income Increased Steadily.

 

In 2015, the national per capita disposable income of residents was 21,966 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.9 percent over last year, or a real increase of 7.4 percent after deducting price factors. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 31,195 yuan, a nominal growth of 8.2 percent, or a real growth of 6.6 percent after deducting price factors. The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 11,422 yuan, up by 8.9 percent, or 7.5 percent in real terms. The per capita income of urban households was 2.73 times of the rural households, 0.02 less than last year. The median of the national disposal income was 19,281 yuan, a nominal increase of 9.7 percent. Taking the per capita disposable income of nationwide households by income quintiles, that of the low-income group reached 5,221 yuan, the lower-middle-income group 11，894 yuan, the middle-income group 19，320 yuan, the upper-middle-income group 29,438 yuan, and the high-income group 54,544 yuan. The Gini Coefficient for national income in 2015 was 0.462. The number of rural migrant workers in 2015 totaled 277.47 million, which was 3.52 million more than that in last year, or up by 1.3 percent. Specifically, the numbers of local and outside migrant workers were 108.63 million and 168.84 million respectively, up by 2.7 and 0.4 percent. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 3,072 yuan, up by 7.2 percent.

 

8. Economic Structure was Optimized and Upgraded.

 

The industrial structure was further optimized. In 2015, the value added of the tertiary industry accounted for 50.5 percent of GDP, 2.4 percentage points higher than last year, 10.0 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. The structure of domestic demand was further improved. In 2015, the final consumption expenditure accounted for 66.4 percent of GDP, 15.4 percentage points higher than last year. The balance of regional structure was strengthened. The value added of industries above the designated size in the central and western regions increased by 7.6 percent and 7.8 percent compared with last year, 0.9 percentage point and 1.1 percentage points faster than the eastern region respectively. Investment in fixed assets in the central region (excluding rural households) increased by 15.7 percent, 3.0 percentage points faster than the eastern region. Energy conservation and consumption reduction continued to make new achievements. In 2015, the energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 5.6 percent compared with last year.

 

9. Money Supply Maintained a Steady Growth.

 

By the end of December, the balance of broad money (M2) was 139.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.3 percent compared with that at the end of last year; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 40.10 trillion yuan, a rise of 15.2 percent; and the balance of cash in circulation (M0) was 6.32 trillion yuan, a rise of 4.9 percent. At the end of December, the amount of outstanding loans was 93.95 trillion yuan, while the amount of outstanding deposits was 135.70 trillion yuan. In 2015, the newly increased loans reached 11.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.81 trillion yuan; the newly increased deposits were 14.97 trillion yuan, or 1.94 trillion yuan more than last year. The social financing reached 15.41 trillion yuan.

 

10. Population and Employment Situation were Generally Stable.

 

By the end of 2015, the total population of mainland China was 1,374.62 million (including population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and servicemen in CPLA; but not including residents in Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, Taiwan Province and overseas Chinese), an increase of 6.80 million over that at the end of 2014. In 2015, the number of births was 16.55 million and the birth rate was 12.07 in a thousand; the number of deaths was 9.75 million with a death rate of 7.11 in a thousand; the natural growth rate was 4.96 in a thousand, a decrease of 0.25 in a thousand. In terms of gender, the male population was 704.14 million, and female population was 670.48 million; the sex ratio of the total population was 105.02 (the female is 100); the sex ratio at birth was 113.51. Population at the working age of 16-59 was 910.96 million, a decrease of 4.87 million as compared with that at the end of 2014, and it accounted for 66.3 percent of the total population; population aged 60 and over was 222.00 million, which was 16.1 percent of the total population; population aged 65 and over was 143.86 million, accounting for 10.5 percent of the total population. In terms of urban-rural structure, the urban population was 771.16 million, an increase of 22.00 million over the last year; and the rural population was 603.46 million, a decrease of 15.20 million. The proportion of the urban population to the total population was 56.1 percent. The population who reside in areas other than their household registration and have been away from there for over 6 months reached 294 million, which was 3.77 million less than that in the last year. Specifically, the migrant population was 247 million, or 5.68 million less. At the end of 2015, the total number of employed persons was 774.51 million and the number of urban employed persons was 404.10 million.

 

Generally speaking, China’s economy has maintained within a proper range. The economic structure has been further optimized, the transformation and upgrading fastened, the new impetus accumulated and the people’s life improved. However, at the same time, we must be aware that the international environment is still complicated, the domestic structural transformation and upgrading are in a crucial period during which challenges need to be overcome and problems need to be resolved and the task of comprehensively deepening the reform is still heavy. For the next step, we must carefully study and implement the spirits of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the 3rd, 4th and 5th Plenary Sessions of the 18th CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference as well as the decisions and arrangements of the Central Party Committee and the State Council. We must adhere to the guideline of stable macro-policy, precise industrial policy, flexible micro-policy, practical reform policy and solid social policy, and focus on the supply-side structural reform so as to promote the national economy to maintain medium-to-high speed and move to medium-to-high end with medium-to-high income.

 

Notes:

 

1. To further promote the integration of China’s quarterly GDP accounting with international practices, the National Bureau of Statistics of China has implemented the reform on quarterly GDP accounting since the third quarter of 2015 by adopting quarterly accounting and publishing the related results.

 

2. The growth rate of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

3. According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, GDP in each quarter and the month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods have been revised. The revised figures and figure for the fourth quarter GDP in 2015 as well as the month-on-month changes for other indicators in December 2014 are as follows:

 

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in 2014 and 2015 were 1.6 percent, 1.8 percent, 1.8 percent, 1.7 percent, 1.3 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent respectively.

 

Month-on-Month Changes in 2015
	Value Added of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size (%)	Investment in Fixed  Assets (Excluding Rural Households) (%)	Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods (%)
January	0.45	0.88	0.80
February	0.42	0.86	1.08
March	0.27	0.84	0.83
April	0.58	0.81	0.85
May	0.50	0.77	0.87
June	0.61	0.83	0.97
July	0.32	0.72	0.80
August	0.54	0.70	0.91
September	0.40	0.71	0.88
October	0.47	0.72	0.82
November	0.57	0.73	0.85
December	0.41	0.68	0.82

 

4. From 2012, the NBS implemented the new Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities (GB/T4754-2011). For more detailed information, please refer to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

 

5. Industrial enterprises above the designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal activities over 20 million yuan.

 

6. Units above the designated size in total retail sales of consumer goods include wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and lodging and catering enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

Online retail sales refer to the total retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtual goods and services etc.).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods. 

 

7. In the fourth quarter of 2012, the National Bureau of Statistics of China conducted the reform of integrated survey of urban and rural households, unifying the names, classification and statistical standards of urban and rural households and selecting 160 thousand urban and rural households across the country to conduct direct surveys. On its basis, per capita disposable income of national residents as well as urban and rural per capita disposable income were calculated according to the new definitions which makes urban and rural households comparable.

 

The median of per capita income of urban and rural households refer to the per capita income of household lied in the middle of all surveyed households which are ranked from low to high based on per capital income level.

 

The income of urban and rural households by quintiles refer to the per capita income of surveyed households which are divided into five levels averagely, ranking from low to high based on per capital income level; the top 20% households with the highest income are classified as high-income group. The other four levels are upper-middle-income group, middle-income group, lower-middle-income group and low-income group.

 

8. Migrant workers refer to those who work in urban areas, or in the non-agriculture sectors in local or other areas for 6 months and above with their permanent household registrations being in rural areas. Local migrant workers refer to those who work in the administration area where they register their households permanently. Outside migrant workers refer to those who work in areas other than the administration area where they register their households permanently.

 

9. Employed persons refer to persons aged 16 and over who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

 

10. The regional data are classified by the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions.

 

11. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs; data of money supply and deposits and loans and social financing are from the People’s Bank of China.

 

12. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.

 

Calano a dicembre, ma meno di novembre, le esportazioni della Cina

Un piccolo segno positivo per l’economia cinese: i dati commerciali di dicembre segnano un calo ma minore di quello registrato a novembre. E, in questo momento difficile per l’economia del dragone, è una notizia che deve tenere allegri. Secondo i dati doganali diffusi stamattina, le esportazioni cinesi a dicembre sono scesi dell’1,4% rispetto all’anno scorso, un miglioramento rispetto al 6,8% di novembre. Le importazioni cinesi sono diminuite del 7,6%, meno dell’8,7% di novembre. I dati commerciali cinesi riflettono la debolezza della domanda globale e un calo della crescita economica interna, ma gli economisti dicono che la spesa al dettaglio e la produzione potrebbero essere in miglioramento. La crescita economica è scesa al minimo da sei anni al 6,9% nel trimestre finito a settembre. La crescita dell’anno passato si dovrebbe attestare appena sotto o comunque vicinissima al 7% anche se per molti sarà difficile che il paese del dragone possa raggiungere una crescita superiore del 6,5%. La bilancia commerciale della Cina ha evidenziato a dicembre un avanzo di 60,09 miliardi di dollari, in miglioramento rispetto ai 54,10 miliardi del mese precedente e sopra le attese degli analisti che avevano pronosticato un calo a 51,30 miliardi di dollari. Durante l’intero 2015 le esportazioni della Cina sono calate del 2,8%. Si è trattato del primo calo annuo dal 2009. Le importazioni sono scese del 14,1%. Il surplus della bilancia commerciale cinese è cresciuto nel 2015, rispetto all’anno precedente, da $382,5 miliardi al livello record di $594,5 miliardi.

Rallenta la crescita della Cina, +6,9 nel terzo trimestre, la più bassa dal 2009

Rallenta ancora la crescita economica della Cina, che nel terzo trimestre del 2015 è scesa a +6,9%, la più’ bassa dal 2009. I dati, diffusi lunedì dall’Ufficio centrale di statistica di Pechino, indicano che la Cina potrebbe non raggiungere l’obiettivo prefissato di una crescita del 7% per il 2015. La media dei primi tre trimestri di quest’anno è del 6,96% e gli economisti ritengono difficile che la situazione cambi in modo sostanziale nel quarto trimestre. Molti osservatori ritengono che il governo, che ha già abbassato per cinque volte i tassi d’interesse dallo scorso novembre, prenderà nuove misure espansive nei prossimi mesi. Per trovare una crescita dell’economia cinese così bassa bisogna risalire al primo trimestre del 2009, quando fu sentito l’impatto della crisi finanziaria globale. Il rischio ora è che la crescita debole generi disoccupazione e proteste popolari. Secondo Louis Buijs della Oxford Economics, il rallentamento è meno accentuato di quanto ci si poteva aspettare. “La continua pressione al ribasso del mercato immobiliare e delle esportazioni ha provocato il crollo del Prodotto Interno Lordo, ma consumi e infrastrutture sono robusti e hanno impedito una diminuzione più forte”, ha affermato.

fonte: ANSA

India: stima Adb, pil 2015-16 crescerà più della Cina

Il pil dell’India crescerà 7,8% nell’anno fiscale 2015-2016, superando quello della Cina, una tendenza che si rafforzerà nel successivo 2016-2017. Lo ha sostenuto oggi la Banca di sviluppo asiatica (Adb). Nel suo studio annuale di previsione dell’andamento dell’economia asiatica, riferisce l’agenzia di stampa Pti, la Adb sostiene che grazie all’agenda di riforme strutturali del governo e ad una migliorata domanda esterna, la crescita e la fiducia degli investitori indiane miglioreranno. Dopo aver ricordato che nell’anno fiscale che si conclude il 31 marzo l’India crescerà del 7,4%, la banca prevede che nel successivo si raggiungerà il 7,8%, e nel seguente l’8,2%. Per quanto riguarda la Cina, invece, la Adb prevede che dall’attuale 7,4 scenderà al 7,2% (2015-2016) e poi al 7% (2016-2017). Le stime della Banca asiatica per il prossimo anno fiscale indiano, nota infine l’agenzia, sono inferiori all’8-8,5% proposto dal governo di Delhi, ma superiori al 7,5% previsto dal Fondo monetario internazionale (Fmi).

fonte: ANSA

La “nuova normalità” dell’economia cinese: il Pil al 7%, il più basso da 24 anni

La “nuova normalità” dell’economia cinese, con la crescita al 7,4%, scuote un po’ Pechino ma continua a fare invidia ai paesi di tutto il mondo. Il dato, diffuso stamattina dall’ufficio centrale di statistica di Pechino, è il più basso dal 1990, quando la Cina crebbe al 3,8% a causa delle sanzioni imposte dopo i fatti di Piazza Tiananmen. Ed è anche la prima volta dal 1998 (i dati sono pubblici sono dal 1995) che la crescita cinese è inferiore al target fissato dal governo che, per il 2014, era del 7,5%. Le autorità cinesi si sono affrettate a parlare di una “nuova normalità” dell’economia cinese, dopo una crescita che ha superato il 10% dal 2000 al 2012, quando poi è stata registrato un pil al 7,7% mantenuto anche nel 2013. E le previsioni non sono rosee: secondo il Fondo monetario internazionale, la Cina dovrebbe crescere del 6,8% (-0,3 punti) nel 2015 e nel 2016 del 6,3% (-0,5 punti). L’annuncio della normalità serve anche a calmierare posizioni e preoccupazioni: in primis quella della ricaduta occupazionale, temuta non poco da Pechino, ma anche quella del debito pubblico. Le cause del rallentamento della crescita cinese derivano in primo luogo da un cambiamento della stessa da un sistema basato sulle esportazioni dovute ai bassi prezzi di produzione, a un sistema basato sul consumo interno. Sceso il mercato immobiliare, uno dei fattori più importanti dell’economia cinese, nel quale gli investimenti l’anno scorso sono cresciuti del 10,5%, molto al di sotto del 9,8% di crescita del 2013, con le vendite in calo del 7,6% e con l’aumento dello spazio non venduto del 26,1%. Il calo dell’immobiliare porta anche il calo dell’acciaio: anche se la produzione ha raggiunto il record di 822,7 milioni di tonnellate l’anno scorso (circa la metà della produzione globale) la crescita è stata solo dello 0,9%, il dato pià basso dal 1981. Nel 2014, sono calati gli investimenti in infrastrutture, scesi a un tasso di crescita del 15,7%, contro un aumento su base annua del 19,6% nel 2013. I dati diffusi stamattina hanno dimostrato una ripresa dell’economia cinese nell’ultima parte dell’anno, con buoni segnali da vendite al dettaglio e la produzione industriale: la stessa ha registrato un calo rispetto al 2013, all’8,3% su base annua, in calo rispetto al 9,7% del 2013. Le autorità erano già preoccupate, non a caso hanno deciso il taglio dei tassi di interesse a novembre. Difficile che, come fatto nel 2008, butteranno soldi nel sistema, perchè aumenterebbero già il notevole debito (240% del pil), ma continueranno a cercare di stimolare al domanda interna cercando sempre più di lasciare un modello industriale pesante verso uno più efficiente aumentando i consumi interni.

Cina: pil del 2014 al 7,4%, il dato più basso dal 1990

La Cina è cresciuta nel 2014 del 7,4%, il dato più basso da 24 anni. E’ quanto rivelano i dati diffusi stamattina dall’ufficio nazionale di statistica di Pechino. Il dato rilevato è inferiore al target governativo fissato al 7,5% ed è principalmente dovuto alla crisi globale che ha inficiato la domanda esterna ma soprattutto al crollo dell’immobiliare e la ancora non sufficiente domanda interna. Senza contare un modello economico legato ancora a bassi salari, industrie inquinanti e ai problemi legati al costo delle materie prime. Nel 2013 la crescita cinese era stata del 7,7%. L’anno scorso il prodotto interno lordo cinese ha raggiunto i 63,65 trilioni di yuan, circa 8,9 trilioni di euro. Nell’ultimo trimestre dell’anno la crescita è stata stabile rispetto al trimestre precedente, facendo registrare il 7,3%. La produzione industriale della Cina è cresciuta nel 2014 dell’8,3%, in calo dal 9,7% visto nel 2013, mentre la crescita degli investimenti a capitale fisso è rallentata al 15,7%. Le vendite al dettaglio sono aumentate del 12% a 26.240 miliardi di yuan (quasi 3.700 miliardi di euro). Al momento il governo cinese non sembra avere intenzione di cambiare rotta circa le riforme annunciate fino alla fine del 2020. Quella che è una crescita invidiata da qualsiasi paese, in Cina è comunque visto come un segnale di allarme soprattutto in termini occupazionali. In ogni caso, diversi progetti infrastrutturali sono stati annunciati quest’anno per sette miliardi di yuan, poco meno di un miliardo di euro. La crescita prevista per il 2015 dovrebbe essere del 7%, ben sotto i tassi superiori al 10% fatti registrare dal 2002 al 2012, quando per la prima volta si è arrivati al 7,7%.

Cina: per gli analisti la crescita del 2014 sarà la più bassa dal 1990

La Cina potrebbe far registrare nel 2014 la peggiore crescita dal 1990, secondo le previsioni degli economisti sui dati ufficiali che Pechino presenterà domani, mancando per la prima volta dal 1998 il target fissato. Secondo le previsioni, la Cina dovrebbe annunciare per il 2014 una crescita tra il 7,3% e il 7,4%, contro il 7,7% del 2013, facendo così registrare il dato più basso da 24 anni. Un tasso di crescita invidiato dal mondo intero, ma che per la locomotiva cinese lancia dei segnali e che è dovuto principalmente al crollo dell’immobiliare, alla deflazione e alla caduta del prezzo delle materie prime. Le previsioni parlano di una crescita del 7,2% nell’ultimo trimestre del 2014 dal 7,3% del periodo precedente, che porterebbe la crescita annuale sotto il target governativo del 7,5%, con la preoccupazione di Pechino soprattutto del riflesso che ha questo sull’occupazione. Dal presidente Xi Jinping in giù, tutti i leader cinesi si sono sempre riferiti al target del 7,5% come flessibile, in considerazione della situazione globale. Tutto ciò, nonostante dati commerciali molto incoraggianti, con un surplus commerciale che ha raggiunto il record di 382 miliardi di dollari nel 2014 che faceva sperare in una performance migliore. Come riportato dal South China Morning Post, il governo cinese continuerà probabilmente ad astenersi dall’inondare il sistema bancario con troppo credito. I dati della Banca Centrale a dicembre hanno mostrato che l’offerta di credito è scesa da novembre. Ma gli alti costi di finanziamento potrebbero provocare secondo gli analisti ulteriori tagli dei tassi di interesse di quest’anno, tagli effettuati lo scorso novembre per la prima volta da due anni. La Commissione centrale per lo sviluppo e le riforme ha riferito di aver approvato progetti di infrastrutture per quest’anno per sette miliardi di yuan, poco meno di un miliardo di euro.

Aumenta l’export cinese nel 2014, stabile import, +47% surplus

Sono aumentate le esportazioni cinesi nel 2014 rispetto all’anno precedente. E’ quanto emerge dai dati diffusi stamattina dall’amministrazione generale delle dogane cinesi. Secondo quanto comunicato, le esportazioni sono aumentate nel 2014 del 6,1%, mentre le importazioni dello 0,4%, portando il valore totale degli scambi l’anno scorso ad un aumento del 3,4%, molto sotto il target fissato del 10%. Nel mese di dicembre, le esportazioni sono aumentate del 9,7% a 227,5 miliardi di dollari; a novembre erano scese del 4,7%. Le importazioni invece sono crollate del 2,4%, mentre a novembre il calo era stato del 6,7%. A dicembre, considerando la forbice tra importazioni e esportazioni, il surplus commerciale si è quasi raddoppiato, aumentando del 94% rispetto all’anno precedente. Per tutto l’anno, il surplus è aumentato del 47% a 382 miliardi di dollari.

Rallenta la crescita del manifattueriero cinese ad agosto

Confermato il rallentamento ad agosto del settore manifatturiero cinese, come previsto dalla banca anglo-cinese Hsbc dieci giorni fa. Secondo i dati diffusi oggi dall’ufficio nazionale di statistica e dalla federazione cinese della logistica e degli acquisti, l’indice Pmi (purchasing managers’ index) ha toccato 51,1, in discesa rispetto al 51,7 di luglio. Con un dato superiore al 50 si parla di crescita, sotto di contrazione.