Pil cinese del 2016 al 6,7%, crescita più bassa da 26 anni ma al top nel mondo

Nel 2016 la Cina, secondo i dati diffusi dall’Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, è cresciuta del 6,7%, al ritmo più basso degli ultimi 26 anni, ma al top del mondo secondo  il Fondo Monetario Internazionale. Nel periodo tra ottobre e dicembre 2016 la crescita è stata del 6,8%,poco sopra le attese, mentre nei tre trimestri precedenti la crescita era stata sempre del 6,7%. La crescita è stata favorita soprattutto dagli investimenti pubblici e dall’espansione del credito, che a dicembre scorso ha raggiunto il livello record di 1040 miliardi di yuan (150 miliardi di dollari). nei primi tre trimestri del 2016 la crescita era stata del 6,7%. I dati diffusi oggi alimentano di nuovo il dibattito sulla veridicità degli stessi, dibattito che è sempre sulle scrivanie di governi ed economisti. Discussioni che sono state anche alimentate dalla notizia, di qualche settimana fa, che il governo della provincia settentrionale del Liaoning ha falsificato i suoi bilanci dal 2011 al 2014. Quello dello sconosciuto debito delle province cinesi, che per sostenere una crescita continua dopo la crisi del 2008 si sono indebitate con le banche, resta centrale e può diventare una vera spina del fianco nell’economia del dragone se si dovesse scoprire che ha assunto i dettagli foschi di cui si parla da tempo.  Di seguito il lancio della Xinhua sui dati economici.

BEIJING, Jan. 20 (Xinhua) — China’s economy ended 2016 on a positive note, supported by consumer spending and a booming property market, and remained a key engine for global economic expansion.

China’s economy grew 6.7 percent year on year in 2016, a slowdown from the 6.9-percent growth registered in 2015, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed Friday.

The growth, although it was China’s slowest annual expansion in 26 years, is likely to top all other major economies, according to a report released January 16 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It was in line with China’s official target range of 6.5 to 7 percent for 2016 and much stronger than some doom-mongers had predicted at the start of 2016, when concerns about a collapse in China’s growth rocked global financial markets.

The figure represents a medium-high level of growth and China’s economy continued to run within a reasonable range, with its structure further optimized and development model transformed, NBS chief Ning Jizhe said at a press conference.x   The NBS said the figure indicated “a good start” for the country’s goal of achieving at least 6.5-percent annual growth during the 13th Five-year Plan period (2016-2020).

China’s economy has entered a new phase, which Chinese leaders have dubbed the “new normal,” as the country tries to transition its export- and investment-driven growth model into one that draws strength from consumption, innovation and the service sector.

Such a transition is bound to be painful and bumpy. Yet, there are plenty of indications that China is progressing in the right direction.

Gross domestic product totaled 74.41 trillion yuan (about 10.83 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2016, with the service sector accounting for 51.6 percent. Consumption contributed 64.6 percent to GDP growth last year. High-tech industries posted fast expansion.

Despite a protracted slowdown, China’s contribution to the world’s economic growth may again top that of all other economies, even exceeding the figure for all developed economies combined.

According to the report, the IMF revised its forecasts for China’s growth upward by 0.1 percentage point to 6.7 percent for 2016 and by 0.3 percentage point to 6.5 percent for 2017.

With the IMF predicting only 3.1 percent global growth for 2016, China’s contribution would account for more than one-third of the world’s growth.

For the fourth quarter, China’s economy grew 6.8 percent, slightly beating market forecasts and representing the first quarterly improvement since the second quarter of 2014.

NBS data showed that major economic indicators softened last year, with industrial output growth slowing slightly to 6 percent from 6.1 percent in 2015.

Urban fixed-asset investment continued to cool, rising 8.1 percent year on year, compared with 10 percent in 2015. Retail sales rose 10.4 percent, down from 10.7 percent in 2015.

However, property development investment increased 6.9 percent year on year in 2016, up from only 1 percent in 2015.

“We should be aware that the domestic and external conditions are still complicated and severe, and the foundation of the economic stabilization and improvement is not solid yet,” Ning said.

China has made “seeking progress while maintaining stability” the main theme for its economic work in 2017, pledging to push for substantial progress in supply-side structural reform, according to the Central Economic Work Conference.

For the year ahead, analysts said China’s economy may face downward pressure from a property market correction and the government’s resolve to defuse financial risks and push through structural reform, which could help sustain longer-term growth but may weigh on near-term growth.

Given more efficient fiscal spending, HSBC expected the property market correction to drag China’s growth down by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points in 2017.

Adding to concerns is external uncertainty, with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump threatening to add trade tensions.

“I personally believe President-elect Trump will consider issues from the perspective of developing mutually beneficial bilateral ties and advance the long-lasting cooperation between the two major countries,” Ning said. “I have hopes for that.”    Enditem







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Il testo del discorso di Xi Jinping a Davos

Di seguito, il testo del discorso di Xi Jinping a Davos, il primo di un presidente cinese al Forum economico e soprattutto un discorso in favore della globalizzazione, impensabile fino a qualche tempo fa, contro il protezionismo americano (appena annunciato da Trump). “Il protezionismo è come chiudersi in una stanza scura. Il vento e la pioggia restano fuori, ma anche l’aria e la luce”.

I’m delighted to come to beautiful Davos. Though just a small town in the Alps, Davos is an important window for taking the pulse of the global economy. People from around the world come here to exchange ideas and insights, which broaden their vision. This makes the WEF annual meeting a cost-effective brainstorming event, which I would call “Schwab economics”.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” These are the words used by the English writer Charles Dickens to describe the world after the Industrial Revolution. Today, we also live in a world of contradictions. On the one hand, with growing material wealth and advances in science and technology, human civilization has developed as never before. On the other hand, frequent regional conflicts, global challenges like terrorism and refugees, as well as poverty, unemployment and widening income gap have all added to the uncertainties of the world.

Many people feel bewildered and wonder: What has gone wrong with the world?

To answer this question, one must first track the source of the problem. Some blame economic globalization for the chaos in the world. Economic globalization was once viewed as the treasure cave found by Ali Baba in The Arabian Nights, but it has now become the Pandora’s box in the eyes of many. The international community finds itself in a heated debate on economic globalization.

Today, I wish to address the global economy in the context of economic globalization.

The point I want to make is that many of the problems troubling the world are not caused by economic globalization. For instance, the refugee waves from the Middle East and North Africa in recent years have become a global concern. Several million people have been displaced, and some small children lost their lives while crossing the rough sea. This is indeed heartbreaking. It is war, conflict and regional turbulence that have created this problem, and its solution lies in making peace, promoting reconciliation and restoring stability. The international financial crisis is another example. It is not an inevitable outcome of economic globalization; rather, it is the consequence of excessive chase of profit by financial capital and grave failure of financial regulation. Just blaming economic globalization for the world’s problems is inconsistent with reality, and it will not help solve the problems.

From the historical perspective, economic globalization resulted from growing social productivity, and is a natural outcome of scientific and technological progress, not something created by any individuals or any countries. Economic globalization has powered global growth and facilitated movement of goods and capital, advances in science, technology and civilization, and interactions among peoples.

But we should also recognize that economic globalization is a double-edged sword. When the global economy is under downward pressure, it is hard to make the cake of global economy bigger. It may even shrink, which will strain the relations between growth and distribution, between capital and labor, and between efficiency and equity. Both developed and developing countries have felt the punch. Voices against globalization have laid bare pitfalls in the process of economic globalization that we need to take seriously.

As a line in an old Chinese poem goes, “Honey melons hang on bitter vines; sweet dates grow on thistles and thorns.” In a philosophical sense, nothing is perfect in the world. One would fail to see the full picture if he claims something is perfect because of its merits, or if he views something as useless just because of its defects. It is true that economic globalization has created new problems, but this is no justification to write economic globalization off completely. Rather, we should adapt to and guide economic globalization, cushion its negative impact, and deliver its benefits to all countries and all nations.

There was a time when China also had doubts about economic globalization, and was not sure whether it should join the World Trade Organization. But we came to the conclusion that integration into the global economy is a historical trend. To grow its economy, China must have the courage to swim in the vast ocean of the global market. If one is always afraid of bracing the storm and exploring the new world, he will sooner or later get drowned in the ocean. Therefore, China took a brave step to embrace the global market. We have had our fair share of choking in the water and encountered whirlpools and choppy waves, but we have learned how to swim in this process. It has proved to be a right strategic choice.

Whether you like it or not, the global economy is the big ocean that you cannot escape from. Any attempt to cut off the flow of capital, technologies, products, industries and people between economies, and channel the waters in the ocean back into isolated lakes and creeks is simply not possible. Indeed, it runs counter to the historical trend.

Opening Plenary with Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China  in Davos, January 17, 2017. Copyright by World Economic Forum / Valeriano Di Domenico

Image: Valeriano Di Domenico

The history of mankind tells us that problems are not to be feared. What should concern us is refusing to face up to problems and not knowing what to do about them. In the face of both opportunities and challenges of economic globalization, the right thing to do is to seize every opportunity, jointly meet challenges and chart the right course for economic globalization.

At the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in late 2016, I spoke about the necessity to make the process of economic globalization more invigorated, more inclusive and more sustainable. We should act pro-actively and manage economic globalization as appropriate so as to release its positive impact and rebalance the process of economic globalization. We should follow the general trend, proceed from our respective national conditions and embark on the right pathway of integrating into economic globalization with the right pace. We should strike a balance between efficiency and equity to ensure that different countries, different social strata and different groups of people all share in the benefits of economic globalization. The people of all countries expect nothing less from us, and this is our unshirkable responsibility as leaders of our times.

Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends,

At present, the most pressing task before us is to steer the global economy out of difficulty. The global economy has remained sluggish for quite some time. The gap between the poor and the rich and between the South and the North is widening. The root cause is that the three critical issues in the economic sphere have not been effectively addressed.

First, lack of robust driving forces for global growth makes it difficult to sustain the steady growth of the global economy. The growth of the global economy is now at its slowest pace in seven years. Growth of global trade has been slower than global GDP growth. Short-term policy stimuli are ineffective. Fundamental structural reform is just unfolding. The global economy is now in a period of moving toward new growth drivers, and the role of traditional engines to drive growth has weakened. Despite the emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and 3-D printing, new sources of growth are yet to emerge. A new path for the global economy remains elusive.

Second, inadequate global economic governance makes it difficult to adapt to new developments in the global economy. Madame Christine Lagarde recently told me that emerging markets and developing countries already contribute to 80 percent of the growth of the global economy. The global economic landscape has changed profoundly in the past few decades. However, the global governance system has not embraced those new changes and is therefore inadequate in terms of representation and inclusiveness. The global industrial landscape is changing and new industrial chains, value chains and supply chains are taking shape. However, trade and investment rules have not kept pace with these developments, resulting in acute problems such as closed mechanisms and fragmentation of rules. The global financial market needs to be more resilient against risks, but the global financial governance mechanism fails to meet the new requirement and is thus unable to effectively resolve problems such as frequent international financial market volatility and the build-up of asset bubbles.

Third, uneven global development makes it difficult to meet people’s expectations for better lives. Dr. Schwab has observed in his book The Fourth Industrial Revolution that this round of industrial revolution will produce extensive and far-reaching impacts such as growing inequality, particularly the possible widening gap between return on capital and return on labor. The richest one percent of the world’s population own more wealth than the remaining 99 percent. Inequality in income distribution and uneven development space are worrying. Over 700 million people in the world are still living in extreme poverty. For many families, to have warm houses, enough food and secure jobs is still a distant dream. This is the biggest challenge facing the world today. It is also what is behind the social turmoil in some countries.

All this shows that there are indeed problems with world economic growth, governance and development models, and they must be resolved. The founder of the Red Cross Henry Dunant once said, “Our real enemy is not the neighboring country; it is hunger, poverty, ignorance, superstition and prejudice.” We need to have the vision to dissect these problems; more importantly, we need to have the courage to take actions to address them.

First, we should develop a dynamic, innovation-driven growth model. The fundamental issue plaguing the global economy is the lack of driving force for growth.Innovation is the primary force guiding development. Unlike the previous industrial revolutions, the fourth industrial revolution is unfolding at an exponential rather than linear pace. We need to relentlessly pursue innovation. Only with the courage to innovate and reform can we remove bottlenecks blocking global growth and development.

With this in mind, G-20 leaders reached an important consensus at the Hangzhou Summit, which is to take innovation as a key driver and foster new driving force of growth for both individual countries and the global economy. We should develop a new development philosophy and rise above the debate about whether there should be more fiscal stimulus or more monetary easing. We should adopt a multipronged approach to address both the symptoms and the underlying problems. We should adopt new policy instruments and advance structural reform to create more space for growth and sustain its momentum. We should develop new growth models and seize opportunities presented by the new round of industrial revolution and digital economy. We should meet the challenges of climate change and aging population. We should address the negative impact of IT application and automation on jobs. When cultivating new industries and new forms models of business models, we should create new jobs and restore confidence and hope to our peoples.

Second, we should pursue a well-coordinated and inter-connected approach to develop a model of open and win-win cooperation. Today, mankind has become a close-knit community of shared future. Countries have extensive converging interests and are mutually dependent. All countries enjoy the right to development. At the same time, they should view their own interests in a broader context and refrain from pursuing them at the expense of others.

We should commit ourselves to growing an open global economy to share opportunities and interests through opening-up and achieve win-win outcomes. One should not just retreat to the harbor when encountering a storm, for this will never get us to the other shore of the ocean. We must redouble efforts to develop global connectivity to enable all countries to achieve inter-connected growth and share prosperity. We must remain committed to developing global free trade and investment, promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation through opening-up and say no to protectionism. Pursuing protectionism is like locking oneself in a dark room. While wind and rain may be kept outside, that dark room will also block light and air. No one will emerge as a winner in a trade war.

Third, we should develop a model of fair and equitable governance in keeping with the trend of the times. As the Chinese saying goes, people with petty shrewdness attend to trivial matters, while people with vision attend to governance of institutions. There is a growing call from the international community for reforming the global economic governance system, which is a pressing task for us. Only when it adapts to new dynamics in the international economic architecture can the global governance system sustain global growth.

Countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, are all equal members of the international community. As such, they are entitled to participate in decision-making, enjoy rights and fulfill obligations on an equal basis. Emerging markets and developing countries deserve greater representation and voice. The 2010 IMF quota reform has entered into force, and its momentum should be sustained. We should adhere to multilateralism to uphold the authority and efficacy of multilateral institutions. We should honor promises and abide by rules. One should not select or bend rules as he sees fit. The Paris Agreement is a hard-won achievement which is in keeping with the underlying trend of global development. All signatories should stick to it instead of walking away from it as this is a responsibility we must assume for future generations.

Fourth, we should develop a balanced, equitable and inclusive development model. As the Chinese saying goes, “A just cause should be pursued for common good.”Development is ultimately for the people. To achieve more balanced development and ensure that the people have equal access to opportunities and share in the benefits of development, it is crucial to have a sound development philosophy and model and make development equitable, effective and balanced.

Opening Plenary with Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China  in Davos, January 17, 2017. Copyright by World Economic Forum / Valeriano Di Domenico

Image: Valeriano Di Domenico

We should foster a culture that values diligence, frugality and enterprise and respects the fruits of hard work of all. Priority should be given to addressing poverty, unemployment, the widening income gap and the concerns of the disadvantaged to promote social equity and justice. It is important to protect the environment while pursuing economic and social progress so as to achieve harmony between man and nature and between man and society. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development should be implemented to realize balanced development across the world.

A Chinese adage reads, “Victory is ensured when people pool their strength; success is secured when people put their heads together.” As long as we keep to the goal of building a community of shared future for mankind and work hand in hand to fulfill our responsibilities and overcome difficulties, we will be able to create a better world and deliver better lives for our peoples.

Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends,

China has become the world’s second largest economy thanks to 38 years of reform and opening-up. A right path leads to a bright future. China has come this far because the Chinese people have, under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, blazed a development path that suits China’s actual conditions.

This is a path based on China’s realities. China has in the past years succeeded in embarking on a development path that suits itself by drawing on both the wisdom of its civilization and the practices of other countries in both East and West. In exploring this path, China refuses to stay insensitive to the changing times or to blindly follow in others’ footsteps. All roads lead to Rome. No country should view its own development path as the only viable one, still less should it impose its own development path on others.

This is a path that puts people’s interests first. China follows a people-oriented development philosophy and is committed to bettering the lives of its people. Development is of the people, by the people and for the people. China pursues the goal of common prosperity. We have taken major steps to alleviate poverty and lifted over 700 million people out of poverty, and good progress is being made in our efforts to finish building a society of initial prosperity in all respects.

This is a path of pursuing reform and innovation. China has tackled difficulties and met challenges on its way forward through reform. China has demonstrated its courage to take on difficult issues, navigate treacherous rapids and remove institutional hurdles standing in the way of development. These efforts have enabled us to unleash productivity and social vitality. Building on progress of 30-odd years of reform, we have introduced more than 1,200 reform measures over the past four years, injecting powerful impetus into China’s development.

This is a path of pursuing common development through opening-up. China is committed to a fundamental policy of opening-up and pursues a win-win opening-up strategy. China’s development is both domestic and external oriented; while developing itself, China also shares more of its development outcomes with other countries and peoples.

China’s outstanding development achievements and the vastly improved living standards of the Chinese people are a blessing to both China and the world. Such achievements in development over the past decades owe themselves to the hard work and perseverance of the Chinese people, a quality that has defined the Chinese nation for several thousand years. We Chinese know only too well that there is no such thing as a free lunch in the world. For a big country with over 1.3 billion people, development can be achieved only with the dedication and tireless efforts of its own people. We cannot expect others to deliver development to China, and no one is in a position to do so. When assessing China’s development, one should not only see what benefits the Chinese people have gained, but also how much hard effort they have put in, not just what achievements China has made, but also what contribution China has made to the world. Then one will reach a balanced conclusion about China’s development.

Between 1950 and 2016, despite its modest level of development and living standard, China provided more than 400 billion yuan of foreign assistance, undertook over 5,000 foreign assistance projects, including nearly 3,000 complete projects, and held over 11,000 training workshops in China for over 260,000 personnel from other developing countries. Since it launched reform and opening-up, China has attracted over $1.7 trillion of foreign investment and made over $1.2 trillion of direct outbound investment, making huge contribution to global economic development. In the years following the outbreak of the international financial crisis, China contributed to over 30 percent of global growth every year on average. All these figures are among the highest in the world.

The figures speak for themselves. China’s development is an opportunity for the world; China has not only benefited from economic globalization but also contributed to it. Rapid growth in China has been a sustained, powerful engine for global economic stability and expansion. The inter-connected development of China and a large number of other countries has made the world economy more balanced. China’s remarkable achievement in poverty reduction has contributed to more inclusive global growth. And China’s continuous progress in reform and opening-up has lent much momentum to an open world economy.

We Chinese know only too well what it takes to achieve prosperity, so we applaud the achievements made by others and wish them a better future. We are not jealous of others’ success; and we will not complain about others who have benefited so much from the great opportunities presented by China’s development. We will open our arms to the people of other countries and welcome them aboard the express train of China’s development.

Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends,

I know you are all closely following China’s economic development, and let me give you an update on the state of China’s economy. China’s economy has entered what we call a new normal, in which major changes are taking place in terms of growth rate, development model, economic structure and drivers of growth. But the economic fundamentals sustaining sound development remain unchanged.

Despite a sluggish global economy, China’s economy is expected to grow by 6.7 percent in 2016, still one of the highest in the world. China’s economy is far bigger in size than in the past, and it now generates more output than it did with double-digit growth in the past. Household consumption and the services sector have become the main drivers of growth. In the first three quarters of 2016, added value of the tertiary industry took up 52.8 percent of the GDP and domestic consumption contributed to 71 percent of economic growth. Household income and employment have steadily risen, while per unit GDP energy consumption continues to drop. Our efforts to pursue green development are paying off.

The Chinese economy faces downward pressure and many difficulties, including acute mismatch between excess capacity and an upgrading demand structure, lack of internal driving force for growth, accumulation of financial risks, and growing challenges in certain regions. We see these as temporary hardships that occur on the way forward. And the measures we have taken to address these problems are producing good results. We are firm in our resolve to forge ahead. China is the world’s largest developing country with over 1.3 billion people, and their living standards are not yet high. But this reality also means China has enormous potential and space for development. Guided by the vision of innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development, we will adapt to the new normal, stay ahead of the curve, and make coordinated efforts to maintain steady growth, accelerate reform, adjust economic structure, improve people’s living standards and fend off risks. With these efforts, we aim to achieve medium-high rate of growth and upgrade the economy to higher end of the value chain.

China will strive to enhance the performance of economic growth. We will pursue supply-side structural reform as the general goal, shift the growth model and upgrade the economic structure. We will continue to cut overcapacity, reduce inventory, deleverage financing, reduce cost and strengthen weak links. We will foster new drivers of growth, develop an advanced manufacturing sector and upgrade the real economy. We will implement the Internet Plus action plan to boost effective demand and better meet the individualized and diverse needs of consumers. And we will do more to protect the ecosystem.

China will boost market vitality to add new impetus to growth. We will intensify reform efforts in priority areas and key links and enable the market to play a decisive role in resources allocation. Innovation will continue to feature prominently on our growth agenda. In pursuing the strategy of innovation-driven development, we will bolster the strategic emerging industries, apply new technologies and foster new business models to upgrade traditional industries; and we will boost new drivers of growth and revitalize traditional ones.

China will foster an enabling and orderly environment for investment. We will expand market access for foreign investors, build high-standard pilot free trade zones, strengthen protection of property rights, and level the playing field to make China’s market more transparent and better regulated. In the coming five years, China is expected to import $8 trillion of goods, attract $600 billion of foreign investment and make $750 billion of outbound investment. Chinese tourists will make 700 million overseas visits. All this will create a bigger market, more capital, more products and more business opportunities for other countries. China’s development will continue to offer opportunities to business communities in other countries. China will keep its door wide open and not close it. An open door allows both other countries to access the Chinese market and China itself to integrate with the world. And we hope that other countries will also keep their door open to Chinese investors and keep the playing field level for us.

China will vigorously foster an external environment of opening-up for common development. We will advance the building of the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific and negotiations of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership to form a global network of free trade arrangements. China stands for concluding open, transparent and win-win regional free trade arrangements and opposes forming exclusive groups that are fragmented in nature. China has no intention to boost its trade competitiveness by devaluing the RMB, still less will it launch a currency war.

Over three years ago, I put forward the “Belt and Road” initiative. Since then, over 100 countries and international organizations have given warm responses and support to the initiative. More than 40 countries and international organizations have signed cooperation agreements with China, and our circle of friends along the “Belt and Road” is growing bigger. Chinese companies have made over $50 billion of investment and launched a number of major projects in the countries along the routes, spurring the economic development of these countries and creating many local jobs. The “Belt and Road” initiative originated in China, but it has delivered benefits well beyond its borders.

In May this year, China will host in Beijing the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, which aims to discuss ways to boost cooperation, build cooperation platforms and share cooperation outcomes. The forum will also explore ways to address problems facing global and regional economy, create fresh energy for pursuing inter-connected development and make the “Belt and Road” initiative deliver greater benefits to people of countries involved.

Ladies and Gentlemen,
Dear Friends,

World history shows that the road of human civilization has never been a smooth one, and that mankind has made progress by surmounting difficulties. No difficulty, however daunting, will stop mankind from advancing. When encountering difficulties, we should not complain about ourselves, blame others, lose confidence or run away from responsibilities. We should join hands and rise to the challenge. History is created by the brave. Let us boost confidence, take actions and march arm-in-arm toward a bright future.

Thank you.

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Frena l’export cinese, per il secondo anno consecutivo

L’amministrazione delle dogane cinesi stamattina ha diffuso dati economici, come riporta l’articolo del South China Morning Post di seguito. I dati mostrano una frenata delle esportazioni che dura da due anni, dimostrato anche dai dati del mese scorso, dopo che a novembre si era ben sperato. L’export in Cina  a dicembre cede il 6,1% su base annua (a 209,4 miliardi di dollari), mentre l’import sale del 3,1% (a 168,5 miliardi): il saldo commerciale si attesta a 40,82 miliardi di dollari, in frenata rispetto ai 44,61 miliardi del mese precedente.  A novembre le esportazioni, dopo un lungo digiuno, erano tornate positive (+0,1%), con le importazioni a quota +6,7%.

China’s exports measured in US dollars fell again in 2016 amid a global economic slowdown, marking a rare two-year drop in Chinese shipments overseas.

Chinese trade officials warned that the country’s US$2 trillion export machine might continue to lose steam as China’s trade partners may become more hostile to Chinese products.

China’s exports in 2016 fell 7.7 per cent compared with 2015 in dollar terms, deepening from a 2.8 per cent fall the previous year, China customs data showed on Friday. Imports fell 5.5 per cent last year.

Exports fell 6.1 per cent in December from the same period the previous year in dollar terms, underperforming a fall of 4 per cent predicted by economists and set against the drop of 1.6 per cent in November.

Imports grew 3.1 per cent last month, in line with market expectations, but lower than the rise of four per cent in November.

Huang Songping, a spokesman with the General Administration of Customs, said at a press briefing that China would continue to see trade woes this year amid a complex global situation and economic downward pressures at home.

“The global political pattern will see huge changes this year, such as the Brexit departure from the European Union, elections in major European countries, the new presidency in the United States and the election of South Korea’s president. [These] will all bring changes to current policies and may exacerbate the momentum of trade protectionism globally,” said Huang.

The government will closely watch for trade policies after Trump takes office, he added.

The US was China’s second-largest trade partner and its biggest export market in 2016.

China’s trade surplus reached US$40.8 billion in December, narrowing from the surplus of US$44.6 billion the previous month.

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Al via la sesta edizione di Intimalente, festival di cinema etnografico a Caserta

Valorizzare le diverse culture e i molteplici linguaggi esistenti al mondo per aprirsi all’altro con occhio attento e curioso e cogliere la bellezza della diversità, come risorsa sociale e di relazione.

In linea con la mission, la Fondazione Mario Diana sostiene la VI° edizione di “IntimaLente”, il Festival di film etnografici organizzato dall’Associazione B.R.I.O. – Brillanti Realtà in Osservazione – col patrocinio della Città di Caserta.

L’edizione 2016 della rassegna si svolgerà al Centro Servizi Sociali e Culturali Sant’Agostino – in via Mazzini, 16 – da martedì 13 a giovedì 15 dicembre.

Un progetto che si avvale della collaborazione dell’Assessorato alla Cultura e alla Pubblica Istruzione del Comune di Caserta, guidato dalla professoressa Daniela Borrelli.

Un’occasione importante per lasciarsi guidare dalla sete di conoscenza e compiere un complesso percorso alla scoperta delle scienze sociali, umane e artistiche, in cui gli unici taccuini di viaggio saranno la macchina da presa e le fotocamere.

Qui potete scaricare la brochure_festival

Un festival che ha in sé introspezione e originalità, che deve il suo titolo a un’approfondita riflessione tra vecchi amici e al suggerimento di uno dei più importanti antropologi visivi al mondo, Michael Herzfeld della Harvard University.

Oltre a un ricco programma di proiezioni, dibattiti e incontri, saranno tre le grandi novità di questa sesta edizione: i lavori fuori concorso, pensati con la volontà di dar spazio al territorio per consentire comparazioni e studi “cross cultural”; la riproposizione di racconti fotografici quale tecnica alternativa per immagini fisse; e la presentazione rivisitata di un classico dell’antropologia italiana, “Sud e Magia” di Ernesto De Martino.


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Si immola un altro tibetano contro la Cina, sono 146 dal 2009

Un tibetano che viveva nella provincia cinese del Guansu si è immolato oggi secondo fonti delle associazioni per i diritti umani, nella prima immolazione da maggio scorso. Intorno alle 7 di stasera ora locale, un uomo si è immolato sulla strada principale di Machu (Maqu in cinese), non lontano dal Machu Bridge. Secondo i testimoni, l’uomo incitava alla liberazione dal tibet della Cina e il ritorno del Dalai Lama, mentre le fiamme lo avviluppavano. Il suo corpo è stato portato via dalla polizia e le sue condizioni, come il luogo dove è stato portato, sconosciute.

Qui una lista di immolazioni da International Campaign for Tibet ma non aggiornata a quella odierna.


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Lo strano gioco di Trump in Asia

Oggi alle 11 su Radio3 Mondo di Rai Radio 3 con Lucio Caracciolo e Marina Lalovic parlo delle politiche (presunte) asiatiche di DOnald Trump e delle telefonate contestate che ha fatto/ricevuto a/da Taiwan, Filippine e Pakistan. Sul sito della trasmissione anche il podcast successivamente.


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Scoprire Ulaanbaatar e la Mongolia in Musica, su File Urbani

File Urbani, una bella trasmissione di Radio 3 Rai, ha mandato in onda ieri e l’altro ieri due mie puntate nelle quali racconto in musica Ulaanbaatar e la Mongolia. Per la stessa trasmissione ho curato le puntate di Pechino e di Shanghai.

Qui e qui trovate i podcast che potete scaricare.

Ecco la lista dei brani che ho scelto e utilizzato:

prima puntata

Tooroi Bandi


Chiggis Baatruud

Manai Ekh Oron



seconda puntata


Altai Magtal

Sersen Tal

Tolin Khul

Ulemjin Chanar


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Totalitarismi in Asia e in America del sud: come si vive nei paesi comunisti?

Stamattina ho partecipato ad una interessante puntata di Ombibus LA7, sul tema. Con me a discutere c’erano Massimo Teodori, Badilla Morales , Massimo Urbani, Diego Fusaro, coordinati da Frediano Finucci, discutendo di Cuba, Venezuela, Cina e Corea del Nord.

Per chi se la fosse persa o volesse rivederla, eccola qui


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Conferenza sulla Mongolia

Oggi alle 18 al MAO (Museo d’arte orientale di Torino, Via San Domenico, 11) terrò una conferenza-conversazione sulla Mongolia. Ingresso libero.

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Xi Jinping, all’Apec per difendere il libero commercio

articolo pubblicato da Affarinternazionali

La Cina che si sta imponendo al mondo è un Paese bivalente che se dal punto di vista della politica interna è improntato ad un rigorismo e a un conservatorismo che non ha precedenti, quanto meno nei tempi più recenti, dal punto di vista della proiezione esterna, in chiave per lo più economica, tende ad aprirsi sempre di più.

Non a caso, in occasione del recente vertice Apec (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) tenutosi a Lima, l’ormai quasi “leader maximo” Xi Jinping ha fortemente difeso il libero commercio.

Chiusura interna, apertura internazionale
Una chiara risposta al neo presidente Usa, Donald Trump, che del protezionismo (e della lotta al made in China con l’ipotesi dell’introduzione di nuovi pesanti dazi per il paese del dragone) ha fatto uno dei cavalli di battaglia della sua campagna elettorale (a dire il vero, poco applicabili, più slogan elettorali che altro).

E mentre si apre al mondo globalizzato, Xi Jinping all’interno concentra sempre di più su di sé il potere politico. Da quando è diventato presidente, nel 2013, ha assommato nella sua persona un numero sempre maggiore di cariche, compresa quella di Comandante del centro operativo delle forze armate. Qualche analista ha detto che dai tempi di Mao nessun altro leader aveva avuto tanto potere.

E dalla fine di ottobre il presidente cinese è diventato anche “nucleo” della leadership del partito. Durante il sesto Plenunum del Comitato Centrale del partito comunista, infatti, Xi ha ottenuto anche questa nuova nomina. Un ulteriore rafforzamento dei suoi poteri, dimostrata anche dalla nomina di suoi sodali a posti chiave o a capi di commissioni che di fatto guidano, sotto il suo controllo, il paese. Xi ha anche licenziato il ministro dell’economia, sostituendolo.

Un cinese a capo dell’Interpol
Fa parte del soft power cinese e del suo accreditamento internazionale anche la recente nomina a capo dell’Interpool di un cinese, Meng Hongwei, ex viceministro della pubblica sicurezza, che succede alla francese Mireille Ballestrazzi. E se per qualcuno avere un cinese a capo dell’Interpool potrebbe favorire il miglioramento dei rapporti internazionali della Cina con gli altri Paesi, per altri non si tratta che dell’ennesimo colpo di Xi per perseguire la sua politica anti-dissidenza.

Già in passato infatti la Cina aveva dato all’Interpool un lungo elenco di nomi di ricercati, latitanti all’estero (corrotti ma anche dissidenti per motivi politici) per i cinesi, rifugiati per altri, che potrebbero vedersi obbligati a tornare in patria. Molti di questi vivono in Paesi che non hanno trattati di estradizione con la Cina, a causa della presenza di torture e pena di morte in questo Paese.

Ma alcuni Stati, come il Canada, hanno deciso di cominciare a discutere un trattato del genere con Pechino. La preoccupazione è che, come per la lotta interna agli oppositori, la Cina possa sfruttare l’autorevolezza del capo dell’Interpool (che non ha sua polizia ma coordina e indirizza azioni) per combattere chi si oppone al regime cinese, come accade per gli uighuri.

L’originale giuramento dei parlamentari di Hong Kong non piace alla Cina
E lo strapotere cinese si fa sentire sempre di più anche a Hong Kong. La ex colonia britannica infatti fa sempre più fatica a conservare la sua autonomia e indipendenza nei confronti della politica accentratrice e decisionista di Pechino.

Il tribunale di Hong Kong ha deciso pochi giorni fa di sospendere due membri del nuovo parlamento, eletti lo scorso settembre, dopo che proprio Pechino, il 7 novembre, aveva sollevato la questione che il giuramento da loro prestato fosse da considerarsi nullo e invalido.

La questione era sorta dopo che i due giovanissimi neo parlamentari, Sixtus Leung (detto Baggio in onore del famoso calciatore italiano) e Yau Wai-ching, il 12 ottobre, durante l’ufficiale cerimonia di giuramento e fedeltà, avevano deciso autonomamente di non attenersi alle formule standard che prevedono un giuramento di fedeltà sia alla regione autonoma di Hong Kong che alla repubblica cinese, ma avevano inserito nel discorso alcune espressioni in chiave anti-cinese e si erano presentati avvolti nella bandiera di Hong Kong, con sopra la scritta “Hong Kong is not China”.

Nel recitare le formule avevano anche intenzionalmente pronunciato male il termine “Cina” utilizzando lo stesso modo dispregiativo usato dai nazi-giapponesi. I due, che fanno parte del partito pro indipendenza Youngspiration, hanno già annunciato che faranno appello e che non intendono cedere.

In questo caso Pechino ha agito, almeno formalmente, nella cornice della legalità e del consentito. Il Paese del dragone infatti ha giustificato la sua intromissione negli affari di Hong Kong avvalendosi di una clausola presente nella costituzione di Hong Kong, la cosiddetta Basic Law, che consente alla Cina in particolari circostanze di prevalere sul legislatore locale.

Una clausola in verità usata nella storia solo cinque volte, sempre però per rimarcare, come sostengono i protestanti, che Hong Kong di fatto non è indipendente o comunque lo è sempre meno. E del resto la posizione di Hong Kong nei confronti della Cina è sempre stata particolare e di difficile definizione, sin da quando, nel 1997, la città, sottratta agli inglesi, ritornò di fatto alla Cina.

Gli accordi presi stabilirono un periodo di transizione, fino al 2024, durante il quale Hong Kong si sarebbe governata da sola, in base al principio “un Paese, due sistemi”. E per questo periodo fu varata appunto una “mini costituzione” che però tra le sue clausole prevede la possibilità per la Cina di intervenire.

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